Critical Long-Term Thresholds in Global Dryland Social-Ecological Systems

Context

Drylands cover ~45% of Earth’s land surface and ~40% of its population, and ~90% are in developing countries. Drylands provide a wide range of crucial ecosystem services, e.g., climate regulation, supply of water and food, and unique biodiversity. However, drylands have low and highly variable annual precipitation, high potential evapotranspiration, coarse nutrient-poor soils, and sparse vegetation with low productivity. They are considered fragile ecosystems, highly sensitive to climate change and human activities, prone to degradation and desertification. The resilience of global dryland social-ecological systems (SES) is facing increasing challenges from increasing aridity and grazing pressure, climate extremes, urbanization and agricultural expansion.

Understanding how global dryland SES respond to ongoing environmental change is critically important for global sustainability and adaptation in the near and long-term. Considering the complexity of human-nature interactions in global drylands, it is essential to accurately identify critical thresholds in SES for maintaining and enhancing resilience.

Aims and Objectives

Dr Li’s Fellowship will seek to identify possible methods to assess carrying capacity thresholds for fast and slow changes in dryland ecosystems to 2500. This is important because identifying the scope of change is needed to determine the dryland thresholds, carrying capacity, and other features is necessary for safe and just development and adaptation planning.