Period 1250-1550 characterised by marked by profound social and economic change
One dynamic of change was population

A. before early C14 population growing (and had been for several centuries)
        reflected in:
        colonisation of new lands -- clearance of forest, drainage of marshland
        greater intensity of land use -- arable displaces pasture, three-field replaces two-field systems etc.
        land hunger / fragmentation of holdings / rents go up / numbers of landless increases
        growth of towns -- but many are disposessed rural migrants, so size not necessarily indicator of
        vitality

B. later C13 / earlier C14: A Subsistence Crisis?
        reflected in:
        poor harvests / high grain prices -- Postan thesis
        Agrarian Crisis / famine (1315-17), but only in north-western Europe
        evidence for falling population?
        evidence for continued growth in many regions

C. the Black Death and its Aftermath [see next lecture] -- dramatic fall in population (?cut by nearly half) + continued demographic recession to mid or later C15
        reflected in:
        falling rents
        shift from arable to pasture

D. demographic recovery ?from later C15, marked by early C16

there is an ongoing debate about the timing and nature of demographic recovery, but it is probably insufficient to to say plague simply became less virulent

Another dynamic is climatic
Climatic instability / deterioration > colder climate > 'little Ice Age of C17'
'Agrarian Crisis' associated with continuous rain over three years
water levels rise > flooding > some abandonment of low-lying land etc.

Another dynamic is monetary
Medievals depended on coins whose value was related to their precious metal content -- a scarcity of gold and silver > deflation / economic stagnation, an abundance to inflation
bullion famines of end C14 / early C15 and, more acute, mid C15 (caused by outflow of precious metals from West to sustain luxury imports / failure of existing silver mines) -- depresses trade -- debasement of coins in order to increase currency when gold / silver scarce > inflation as traders seek metal rather than face value

Putting these factors together, what can we say about economic development / social change?
Standards of Living
In period A landed classes / aristocracy prospered -- high rents, high returns from sale of surpluses etc. hence demand for luxury goods (eg jewelry, Flemish cloth, furs, spices etc.), patronage of religious houses, hospitals, churches etc.

Demand for luxury goods helps sustain international trade - cloth manufacture in the Low Countries, Northern Italy - extensive trade in dyestuffs - trade in wool - import of silks and spices from east, furs etc. from north
Trade in grain to supply the larger cities of N.Italy and Low Countries

Lower orders, especially wage labour, command low wages, but food expensive > poverty
Peasant agriculturalists pay high rents etc.
but in period B tendency for smallholders to be bought up by more substantial peasants -- polarisation in landholding

By period C shift in favour of ranks below aristocracy -- greater purchasing power / patronage of non-aristocrats > changes in patterns of consumption [developed in next lecture]

but by mid C15 bullion famine acts as significant check on the economy > unemployment / poverty; by period D aristocracy once again probably gaining at expense of lower orders / friction between lords and peasants / hardening of attitudes to able-bodied poor ('sturdy beggars')
 

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