Dr Colin Beale from our Department of Biology was part of a national team that assessed the risks and opportunities for species in England as a result of climate change.
North-south divide
The study, published by Natural England, shows that wasps, bees, ants and southern species including the Dartford warbler are likely to benefit from predicted 2C global temperature rises by 2080.
However, further north and in the uplands, breeding birds such as curlew and cuckoo, plus damp-loving mosses and liverworts will be at risk from rising temperatures.
The results reflect the fact that there are more southerly-distributed species than northern species living in England, giving greater scope for southerners to flourish from climate warming. As a result, those at greatest risk are often found in upland habitats.
Statistics
Using a statistical analysis tool developed by Dr Beale, the researchers found that more than one quarter of the 3,000 plants and animals studied were at high to medium risk of losing their habitats when temperatures rise.
Just over half of species could potentially expand their habitat, but there is some uncertainty about their ability to disperse into new areas and gain from the possible benefits.
"New analysis methods have enabled us to be far more comprehensive in this report than anything seen before,” says Dr Beale.
Conservation
“While our overall results simply add weight to an increasingly clear picture of the impacts of climate change on wildlife, the wide coverage we have means we can consider in more detail the groups that are often overlooked, but just as important ecologically as more charismatic groups.
“For example, the UK's uniquely mild, damp climate has allowed the development of an internationally important community of mosses and our results highlight this group as facing increased threat from climate change allowing a clear focus for conservation effort."
The report was published by Natural England in partnership with the University of York, the British Trust for Ornithology, the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology and the RSPB.
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