The impact of contested decarbonisation on peace: Carbon revenue governance in Aceh and Papua's predatory peace settlements.

Preliminary results from a pilot study for the World Peace Foundation & US Institute of Peace

Claire Smith and Susy Williams, Department of Politics and International Relations, University of York

The paper explores what has or could happen when carbon revenues rapidly diminish in conflict affected areas and when peace settlements are dependent on those carbon revenues. We compare two resource rich regions of Indonesia - Papua and Aceh - both of which have faced deep and enduring territorial conflicts over the past 50 years, and where two different political settlements have been reached to manage conflict since democratisation. We consider how the stability of local political economies, and therefore peace, in these highly contested areas relies on the extraction and redistribution of natural resources, with a focus on liquified natural gas (LNG). Indonesia is among the top global producing states of LNG, and this natural resource is crucial to both regions and their peace settlements, although in contrasting ways and with differing degrees of formality. We discuss the implications and risks of a close relationship between carbon revenue decline and the political settlements drawn up to underpin peace in fragile regions, both for Indonesia and beyond.

Speaker biographies

Claire Smith's research interests are in the comparative politics of conflict management, intervention and peacebuilding in the context of democratic transition. Her particular focus is on the politics of illiberal peacebuilding in contested states. More broadly, Claire works on the national and sub-national politics of post-war governance, the impact of ethno-religious violence, and responses to mass atrocities and civil war. Her geographical expertise is in Southeast Asia, especially Indonesia and Myanmar, as well as Timor-Leste and Cambodia.

Claire co-founded and co-convened the ESRC Strategic Network on ‘Comparative Peacebuilding in Asia’. This international network was led by early career scholars from the LSE, the ANU in Australia, and Gadja Mada University, Indonesia, along with scholars and practitioners from South and Southeast Asia, to support novel, policy-relevant and interdisciplinary research on liberal and illiberal transitions from ethnic conflict and authoritarianism. Most recently, Claire’s research has focused on the political impacts of and responses to mass atrocities in illiberal contexts, in collaboration with the Norwegian Centre for Holocaust and Minority Studies; and on the enduring legacies of illiberal peacebuilding in Southeast Asia, with collaborators at Umeå University, Sweden.

Claire’s research has appeared in leading journals such as Conflict, Security and Development, Third World Quarterly and Peacebuilding. Her research has been funded by the ESRC, The Asia Foundation, and The World Peace Foundation

Susy Williams is a PhD Candidate, Research Assistant and Graduate Teaching Assistant at the University of York. Her research explores the gendered connections between human and environmental exploitation in garment production in the UK through a postcolonial feminist lens. Her current research activities outside her PhD centre on equitable research environments, centring care in research and challenging systemic injustices in education.

Joshua Kirshner is Senior Lecturer (Associate Professor) in Human Geography and Environmental Studies in the Department of Environment and Geography. His research and teaching interests are in sustainable cities, urbanization and the economic and political geographies of low-carbon transition. He currently works on a UKRI-GCRF-funded project on community energy in Ethiopia, Malawi and Mozambique (2021-24). He has co-directed a two-year project on electricity-grid access histories and futures in Mozambique, supported by UK Aid/UK FCDO (2019-21).