Our man on Ukraine: Russian military blogs are buzzing with news of the withdrawal from Kherson

Posted on Thursday 10 November 2022

Not surprisingly, the war in Ukraine has consumed my attention since February. I have been visiting Ukraine since 2014 and have travelled extensively in the country and have been deeply impressed by its efforts to shake off its Soviet heritage and create a modern, European state. From the beginning of the war, I have been commentating on it for the international, national and local media as interest in Ukraine and desire for knowledge about it reaches unprecedented levels.

Out of this emerged the suggestion that I write a brief commentary each week about the events of the war, the implications for Ukraine and the broader international context. As well as discussions on what is making the headlines, I will give you access to the views of Ukrainian and Russian military bloggers, specialists on military affairs from both countries and those of my friends, some in Ukraine some in exile.

For the past few weeks a bloody battle has been fought for Kherson, a city on the mouth of the River Dnipro. This battle is shaping up to be one of the decisive ones of the war. Ukrainian forces are moving south down the right bank of the Dnipro and approaching the city from the west , pinning the occupying Russian forces against the river. In the city itself, the military and civilian administration has fled, leaving the city and the civilian population at the mercy of armed marauders. For both sides the battle for Kherson has immense importance.

It is the only provincial capital the Russians have seized since the war began, it is the administrative centre of Kherson province, recently annexed by Russia, and it controls the fresh water supply to Crimea. The loss of Kherson would represent a humiliation of the first order for Putin and another demonstration of the remarkable prowess of the Ukrainian army. The political consequences for Putin will be severe. His position is substantially weaker than it was when the war began and his ambitious and increasingly outspoken subordinates will feel even more emboldened. That loss seems increasingly likely, according to Ukrainian, Russian and Western sources. The question is when and at what cost will the Ukrainians take the city.