The Poetics of Premodern Probability

Our paper examines the relationship between probability and literary representation. We argue that modern meanings of the word ‘probability’, which focus on mathematical calculations of likelihood, have obscured the poetic scope of the language of proof, proving and probability in sixteenth and seventeenth century England.

The paper will outline the problematic history of the term ‘probability’ in literary scholarship and discuss important accounts of probability in early modern writings on rhetoric and logic.

We will conclude by sketching some implications of acknowledging the particular dimensions of premodern probability in fiction and law, with examples from Shakespeare and Plowden, to illustrate how discourses of probability affect our understanding of key early modern issues such as sexual and national identity.

Tea and coffee will be served from 5pm.

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