The complexity of social care: using Agent-Based Modelling (ABM) to simulate the effects of demographic and policy changes on informal social care provision

Abstract: 

Current demographic trends in the UK include a fast-growing elderly population and dropping birth rates, and demand for social care amongst the aged is rising. The UK depends on informal social care - family members or friends providing care - for some 50% of care provision. However, lower birth rates and a greying population mean that care availability is becoming a significant problem, causing concern amongst policymakers that substantial public investment in formal care will be required in decades to come. In this paper we present an agent-based model of social and childcare provision in the UK, in which agents can provide informal care or pay for private care for their relatives. Agents make care decisions based on numerous factors including their health status, employment, financial situation, and social and physical distance to those in need. Simulation results show that the model can produce plausible patterns of care need and availability, and therefore can provide an important aid to this complex area of policymaking. We propose that our model better captures the complexities of social care provision than other methods, due to the socioeconomic details present and the use of kinship networks to distribute care amongst family members.